Today’s RICS survey shows that 78.5% of surveyors reported a fall in house prices in March. This is not surprising, as we pointed out in our recent research report, Is There a Future for High Street Estate Agency?, house prices in the UK - as a percentage of average earnings - remain well above the peak ratio of 1989.
The property derivatives market, which we believe offers the best guidance on future price trends, continues to point to steep falls ahead. Our friends at DTZ sent us up to date prices this morning. They certainly make for interesting reading:
Average / House Price / Change
Current £194,094
Mar-09 £170,803 -12.0%
Mar-10 £163,039 -16.0%
Mar-11 £161,098 -17.0%
Mar-12 £163,039 -16.0%
Mar-13 £166,921 -14.0%
Mar-14 £174,685 -10.0%
Bear in mind also that prices have already fallen almost 3% from their high of £199,600 in August 2007.
In traditional estate agency there have been two responses to the gathering evidence of a significant correction in the market. The first is simple denial. Hence we still have forecasts from ‘commentators’ such as Savills’ Lucian Cook who as recently as February still predicted a 3% increase in house prices this year.
The second response has been to increase fees. This is rather more puzzling, although it is great for online agents like us. Hence we read in last weekend’s Financial Times that Savills was proud to announce an increase in their fees to 2% - 2.5% in the last couple of months. This was justified, according to the FT, on the basis that ‘property is harder to sell now’.
Well forgive us for being a little churlish, but surely it is always hard work providing buyers and sellers of property with a quality service. Surely that doesn’t change regardless of the state of the market.
So why the increase in fees, and why so proud about it? The FT piece went on to rubbish online estate agents by lumping high quality, full service, companies like BrightSale in with ’sell it yourself’ websites like Houseladder and claiming that they couldn’t sell property in a bear market.
Far from it, our rigorous approach to completion chain management has left us, if anything, at an advantage versus the high street brigade in more challenging times.
We wrote the FT to clarify the matter, but regrettably that have not deigned to print our response. Far be it from us to suggest that this might have something to do with the amount of colour advertising that Savills does in the Weekend FT. But in the interests of balance, we thought we should publish the letter the FT rejected here:
Dear Weekend Editor:
Your rather lop-sided defence of the traditional estate agency set up a false dichotomy between traditional high cost agents such as Savills and ’sell it yourself’ websites as provided by Tesco and Asda (’We’re back to having to work hard’, Weekend FT, April 5th/6th).
Pure ‘sell it yourself websites’ such as Tesco’s had no chance of success. The convoluted process of buying and selling residential property in England and Wales (which HIPs have done nothing to alleviate) means that vendors certainly need an experienced agent’s help in managing the completion process.
But sadly your correspondent completely overlooked the fastest growing sub-sector of the market: the full service online agency. These companies employ experienced hard working agents but in more efficient call centre locations. In a report published last week (Is there a Future for High Street Estate Agency?), my own company noted that listings with such agencies had leapt 58% in the last nine months alone. If this sub-sector were counted as one group it would now be the tenth largest agency in England and Wales (by instructions).
Your correspndent also seems to ignore the fact that traditional agency fees have been in steady decline since 1997. It would defy all business logic if a period of steeply falling demand for estate agency services (with lower transaction volumes) was met with a sustainable increase in prices.
Our research shows that if house prices and transactions fall in accordance with previous cycles, that the costly branch network and staff overheads built up during the doom years could be an anchor that drags down traditional high street agency for good (as has all but happened in conveyancing and travel agency). The future certainly belongs to estate agents who work hard, but probably not from expensive high street premises in logoed cars.
Yours etc.
Andy Etches
CEO